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The data: VPN connections surge 800%

VPN connections from Russia increased more than sevenfold over a three-day window where total connections across the period exceeded 1.1 million.

The surge began abruptly on the evening of March 24, when connections surged by 158% within 60 minutes. By March 25, hourly averages had nearly doubled. By March 26, they had tripled. By March 27, the average across the first 14 recorded hours was a 389% sustained increase over baseline.

Unlike previous Observatory spikes that showed a single surge followed by a plateau or an event-driven spike-and-sustain pattern, the Russia spike follows an escalating staircase, each day significantly larger than the last, with no sign of deceleration as of March 27.

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Why Russia is cracking down on the internet

The VPN surge is the culmination of months of escalating state control over Russia's internet infrastructure, a campaign that accelerated dramatically in early 2026.

The Telegram crisis

Telegram is Russia's most widely used messaging app, with approximately 95 million users, 76% of the population. On February 10, 2026, users began reporting difficulties accessing the platform. Roskomnadzor, Russia's internet censorship agency, confirmed it was imposing "gradual restrictions" on Telegram for failing to comply with Russian legislation. By mid-March, Telegram availability had dropped to 75%, meaning one in four messages failed to reach its recipient.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov, against whom Russia opened a criminal case for allegedly "promoting terrorism", has called the restrictions "an attempt to force citizens to switch to a state-controlled app built for surveillance and political censorship."

The Max messenger push

The Kremlin's end goal appears to be migrating Russia's population onto Max, an unencrypted messaging platform launched by Russian social media giant VK in mid-2025. Max has been pre-installed on all phones and tablets sold in Russia since September 2025, and is integrated with Russia's government services portal. Unlike Telegram and WhatsApp, Max is on Russia's "whitelist" of approved digital services that stay online during internet blackouts. Officials claim Max has already reached 100 million users, 70% of the population. though many have expressed reluctance to adopt it willingly.

The Moscow blackout

Since early March, Moscow residents have experienced prolonged mobile internet outages, disruptions that initially spared the capital but have plagued other Russian regions since mid-2025 under the justification of countering Ukrainian drone threats. On March 24, independent Russian media outlet The Bell reported that the blackout was ordered directly by the Russian government, with the FSB providing internet service providers a map of areas where connectivity should be disabled.

The whitelist system

During outages, Russian authorities introduced a "whitelist" system allowing access only to government-approved websites such asstate media, official portals, banking services, and Max. This marks a significant escalation toward what digital rights groups have described as a "digital iron curtain," moving Russia closer to an Iran-style or China-style controlled internet.

VPN crackdown

In February 2026, Roskomnadzor confirmed it had blocked 469 VPN services. Since December 2025, authorities have blocked the three most popular VPN protocols. Starting September 2025, Russian users can be fined for "intentionally" searching for "extremist" content on the internet, including via VPNs. On March 24, courts in Moscow and St. Petersburg began fining internet providers for allowing traffic to bypass TSPU, the state-mandated deep packet inspection equipment designed to block access to banned websites.

What's next

The Russia VPN surge shows no sign of slowing. Several upcoming milestones could drive further escalation:

Potential full Telegram block

Russian media report that authorities are planning to fully block Telegram in April. If implemented, this would affect 95 million users and could produce an even larger VPN surge.

Expanded TSPU enforcement

‍ Courts are already fining ISPs for allowing traffic to bypass TSPU filters. As enforcement intensifies, more traffic will be forced through government inspection equipment — increasing both blocking effectiveness and the incentive to use VPNs.

Protest rallies

Activists across multiple regions have applied for authorization for additional protests on March 29. Previous protest dates have correlated with spikes in both VPN demand and government countermeasures.

Max adoption pressure

‍As the government increases pressure to migrate users to Max, resistance from users who value encrypted communication may sustain VPN demand as a means of accessing Telegram and other blocked platforms.

Methodology and sources

To analyze the Russia VPN spike, a mix of firsthand data and independent third-party sources was used.

Internal data:

• VPN Super app connection data (March 24–27, 2026), anonymous, country-level usage patterns with hourly granularity.

News and monitoring sources:

• Reuters / The Bell: FSB ordered Moscow internet blackout
• CNN: Internet outages disrupt daily life in Russia
• Reuters: Russia tightens the screws on the internet
• RFE/RL: Russians' patience tested by Telegram, WhatsApp, Max disruptions
• Meduza: Internet disruptions and Telegram outages fuel anger
• The Moscow Times: Telegram outages as block rumors swirl
• Human Rights Watch: Digital iron curtain on internet freedom
• NBC News: Internet blackouts hit Moscow
• Washington Post: Russia thwarts protests over Telegram blocking
• Japan Times / NDTV: Russia pushing Max messenger
• TechRadar: Russia VPN crackdown reaches new heights
• OSW: Russia accelerates internet shutdowns
• Jamestown Foundation: Telegram outages in Kremlin's push for digital control
• EFE: Russia plans to expand internet blocking capacity
• Kommersant / Forum Free Russia: TSPU overload night of March 22–23
• Zona Media: Courts fining ISPs for bypassing TSPU blocks
• Freedom House: Russia internet freedom score 17/100
• Internet Society Pulse: Russia internet resilience score 59%